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| author | Prefetch | 2022-10-14 23:25:28 +0200 |
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| committer | Prefetch | 2022-10-14 23:25:28 +0200 |
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diff --git a/source/know/concept/stochastic-process/index.md b/source/know/concept/stochastic-process/index.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..512110a --- /dev/null +++ b/source/know/concept/stochastic-process/index.md @@ -0,0 +1,58 @@ +--- +title: "Stochastic process" +date: 2021-11-07 +categories: +- Mathematics +- Stochastic analysis +- Measure theory +layout: "concept" +--- + +A **stochastic process** $X_t$ is a time-indexed +[random variable](/know/concept/random-variable/), +$\{ X_t : t > 0 \}$, i.e. a set of (usually correlated) +random variables, each labelled with a unique timestamp $t$. + +Whereas "ordinary" random variables are defined on +a probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, P)$, +stochastic process are defined on +a **filtered probability space** $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \{ \mathcal{F}_t \}, P)$. +As before, $\Omega$ is the sample space, +$\mathcal{F}$ is the event space, +and $P$ is the probability measure. + +The **filtration** $\{ \mathcal{F}_t : t \ge 0 \}$ +is a time-indexed set of [$\sigma$-algebras](/know/concept/sigma-algebra/) on $\Omega$, +which contains at least all the information generated +by $X_t$ up to the current time $t$, +and is a subset of $\mathcal{F}_t$: + +$$\begin{aligned} + \mathcal{F} + \supseteq \mathcal{F}_t + \supseteq \sigma(X_s : 0 \le s \le t) +\end{aligned}$$ + +In other words, $\mathcal{F}_t$ is the "accumulated" $\sigma$-algebra +of all information extractable from $X_t$, +and hence grows with time: $\mathcal{F}_s \subseteq \mathcal{F}_t$ for $s < t$. +Given $\mathcal{F}_t$, all values $X_s$ for $s \le t$ can be computed, +i.e. if you know $\mathcal{F}_t$, then the present and past of $X_t$ can be reconstructed. + +Given any filtration $\mathcal{H}_t$, a stochastic process $X_t$ +is said to be *"$\mathcal{H}_t$-adapted"* +if $X_t$'s own filtration $\sigma(X_s : 0 \le s \le t) \subseteq \mathcal{H}_t$, +meaning $\mathcal{H}_t$ contains enough information +to determine the current and past values of $X_t$. +Clearly, $X_t$ is always adapted to its own filtration. + +Filtration and their adaptations are very useful +for working with stochastic processes, +most notably for calculating [conditional expectations](/know/concept/conditional-expectation/). + + + +## References +1. U.H. Thygesen, + *Lecture notes on diffusions and stochastic differential equations*, + 2021, Polyteknisk Kompendie. |
